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Total sales of GLP-1 drugs, a class of diabetes medication that includes semaglutide, is taking China by storm

Total sales of GLP-1 drugs, a class of diabetes medication that includes semaglutide, could reach a peak of 40 billion yuan ($5.6 billion) in China, according to an estimate by Shanghai-based Tebon Securities last October. It did not provide a timeframe.

That would represent a more than 600% increase from the current market size.

Both Western and Chinese drugmakers want a slice of the growing market.

Novo Nordisk has applied to China’s drug regulator to widen the scope of use for semaglutide, according to the National Medical Products Administration. Its website showed the regulator received the application on Saturday.

State media speculated that the application would be for weight loss. The drugmaker hasn’t responded to a CNN request for comment.

Several Chinese firms have accelerated their development of generic versions of semaglutide.

Novo Nordisk’s patents for semaglutide in China are expected to expire in 2026, which is the earliest that generics could be available for sale.

But this is being challenged.

In June 2021, Huadong Medicine, a pharmaceutical firm based in Hangzhou, applied to China’s State Intellectual Property Office to invalidate the patent. In September 2022, the office ruled all so-called core patents for Ozempic to be invalid in China.

Novo Nordisk has appealed the decision. A legal battle is currently underway at the Beijing Intellectual Property Court. If the decision is upheld by the court, a raft of generic versions of semaglutide by domestic manufacturers could come into the market.

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